January 15, 2026

Hey, it's Khem. Yep, still the only Khem Kadariya in the world!

and here is the new video just got published this week. Rochester, NY's Dark Secret: Why Everyone Is Leaving!

BTW — Rochester just got named #1 in the U.S. for first-time home buyers for 2026. That’s not hype. That’s a data point you can use.

In today's newsletter:

Housing Market Signal: Rochester #1 for First-Time Buyers (2026)
NAR/Realtor.com data puts Rochester at the top, driven by low mortgage-payment share of income and a low median listing price.

Real Estate Pipeline: Major redevelopment projects moving again

• Colgate Divinity campus redevelopment reactivates with a 136-unit plan and a multi-year timeline.

• Former St. Thomas School (Irondequoit) clears a key legal hurdle and heads back toward apartments.

• 7 Brew continues rapid expansion with Irondequoit now in play.

Economy Watch: Constellation Brands local layoffs + sales decline
Rochester headcount down year-over-year and leadership signaling ongoing pressure in key consumer segments.

Infrastructure + Placemaking: rail funding and cultural anchors

• Finger Lakes region lands $20.43M for rail/port projects, with two Rochester & Southern Railroad bridge projects totaling ~$9.04M.

• RBTL completes Phase One of PROJECT RESTOURATION, reopening entrances and upgrading accessibility/amenities.

• Morgan-Manning House restoration advances with community support and a defined repair scope/cost range.

ROCHESTER LEADS THE NATION FOR FIRST-TIME HOME BUYERS IN 2026 WITH LOW MEDIAN LISTING PRICE AND SUB-20% INCOME SHARE FOR MORTGAGES (NAR)

NAR’s write-up of Realtor.com’s 2026 list puts Rochester, NY at #1 for first-time home buyers. The key stats they cite are exactly what matters in the real world: median listing price $139,900, 25–34 median income $48,617, and ~19.1% of income spent on the mortgage payment.

Why this matters (practically):

• Affordability is the headline. When the payment-to-income math stays under ~20%, buyers can qualify without “perfect” financial conditions.

• This can drive inbound demand (especially from higher-cost metros), which tends to tighten entry-level supply first. (Inference based on affordability + migration dynamics; the ranking is the hard proof.)

What makes it actionable in Rochester suburbs:

• Entry-level competition usually shows up fastest in neighborhoods with “short commute + solid schools + predictable housing stock” (Irondequoit, Greece, Henrietta, Penfield, Webster patterns).

• If you’re watching 2026 inventory, the first-time segment is the canary - when it heats up, move-up demand follows 60–120 days later.

INGGRASSIA RESTARTS $46.28M COLGATE DIVINITY CAMPUS REDEVELOPMENT WITH 136 UNITS AND A 2027 TARGET COMPLETION WINDOW (RBJ)

This is one of the most important “supply” stories near downtown because it’s not theoretical anymore: the developer filed for assistance through Monroe County IDA, and the plan described is a $46.28M phased project with 136 residential units on the former Colgate Rochester Crozer Divinity campus near Highland Park.

Project positioning (from the reported applications/coverage):

• The COMIDA/IDA framing emphasizes affordable-quality housing near downtown and the need to keep rents “affordable” through incentives.

• Reported rent targets range from about $1,170 (1BR) up to ~$2,700 (2BR), with 27 units reserved for tenants earning up to 60% of Area Median Income (as described in coverage of the application).

• Timeline: WXXI reports the city extended final site plan approval through February 2027, and the application projects construction starting April and completion October 2027.

What makes it strategic:
This kind of project influences the “pressure valve” for housing demand: if larger infill projects actually deliver units, it reduces bidding pressure elsewhere. If they stall (financing, litigation, construction cost spikes), demand spills into the surrounding neighborhoods and suburbs.

IRONDEQUOIT’S FORMER ST. THOMAS SCHOOL REDEVELOPMENT CLEARS A LEGAL BARRIER WITH $8M PLAN AND EARLY TENANT WAITLIST SIGNALS (WDKX)

The former St. Thomas School project is back in motion after a key legal hurdle was cleared. Reporting indicates the use variance was upheld in State Supreme Court and later affirmed, allowing the redevelopment plan to move ahead.

Current stated plan (as reported):

• ~$8M investment

• 16–18 market-rate apartments (adaptive reuse)

• Preservation of historic features

• Developers aiming to present final plans by March and target tenants within ~2 years

• Reported waitlist ~100 people

Why this matters for Irondequoit housing:
Adaptive reuse projects like this quietly change the rental and resale ecosystem:

• Adds “new-ish” housing product without new sprawl

• Pulls demand from older rentals (and sometimes starter homes)

• Sets a new rent/amenity benchmark nearby

7 BREW COFFEE TARGETS EAST RIDGE ROAD WITH A DRIVE-THRU PLAN AS IRONDEQUOIT CONTINUES RETAIL REPOSITIONING (RBJ)

7 Brew’s Rochester-area rollout is accelerating, and Irondequoit may be next. RBJ reports the concept heading to the planning board is a drive-thru coffee shop at 850 East Ridge Road, involving demolition of a vacant 5,532 SF building and installation of 7 Brew’s modular pre-fab restaurant.

Expansion map (as reported):

• Opened: Greece (Ridgemont Plaza) + Town of Sweden (Brockport–Spencerport Rd)

• Approved/working: Penfield (Empire Blvd), Henrietta (East Henrietta Rd), and another Henrietta site (former Sticky Lips location on Jefferson Rd)

What makes it useful in a real estate lens:
Retail momentum doesn’t “create” home values overnight - but it’s a signal of traffic patterns, rooftops, and consumer density. When chains stack locations this fast, they’re betting on repeatable volume.

CONSTELLATION BRANDS REPORTS SALES DECLINE AND CONFIRMS LOCAL LAYOFFS AS MANAGEMENT FLAGS PRESSURE IN KEY CONSUMER SEGMENTS (RBJ)

On the economic side, this is the caution tape. RBJ reports Constellation has reduced its local workforce by at least 55 employees (about 9%) over the past year (to 558 local employees, down from 613). A spokesperson confirmed local layoffs as part of restructuring, though not the exact number affected.

At the national/company level, Reuters highlights leadership commentary that the beer category remains challenged, with pressure tied to Hispanic consumer spending patterns, and notes Constellation expects an annual beer sales decline range of ~2% to 4%.

What makes it critical:

• Local headcount reductions can affect confidence in certain buyer segments (especially if layoffs cluster by function).

• It doesn’t mean Rochester is “weak” - it means some household groups will be more rate-sensitive and payment-sensitive in 2026.

NEW YORK AWARDS $20.43M TO FINGER LAKES RAIL PROJECTS WITH ROCHESTER & SOUTHERN RECEIVING OVER $9M FOR BRIDGE REPLACEMENTS (NY.GOV)

New York State announced $101M+ statewide rail/port infrastructure awards, with the Finger Lakes region receiving $20,430,243.

WHEC breaks out the Rochester-specific impact clearly: Rochester & Southern Railroad receives $5,964,817 for replacement of the Oatka Creek Bridge (114.8 feet, originally built 1933, rehab 1965), plus $3,076,338 for the Spring Creek Bridge substructure/superstructure replacement, tie replacement, and grade crossing surface work - totaling roughly $9.04M.

Why it matters locally:

• Freight and industrial reliability is a “quiet enabler” of regional growth (jobs, supply chain stability, development confidence).

• This kind of funding supports the boring-but-essential backbone that makes sites more investable.

RBTL COMPLETES PHASE ONE OF $65M PROJECT RESTOURATION REOPENING EAST MAIN ENTRANCES AND UPGRADING ACCESSIBILITY AHEAD OF 2026 BROADWAY RUNS (WHEC)

RBTL finishing Phase One is a downtown signal: people underestimate how much “ease of access” and better circulation affects attendance, foot traffic, and surrounding business spillover.

RBJ reports Phase One completion coincides with reopening both East Main Street entrances and the adjacent east parking lot, improving access and safety. Work included steps/railings/retaining walls replacements, widened sidewalks, refurbished elevators, a new second-floor lobby crossover with new lounge/concessions and added restrooms, plus restored historic brass doors and new lounge/entertainment space.

This lines up with WHEC’s summary that Phase One focused on accessibility, adaptability, and amenities.

What makes it strategic:
Cultural anchors are economic anchors. When venues reduce friction (parking, entrances, accessibility), it strengthens downtown as a place people choose repeatedly - and repeat visits support surrounding redevelopment.

MORGAN-MANNING HOUSE RESTORATION PROGRESSES WITH COMMUNITY SUPPORT AS REPAIR COSTS ESTIMATED UP TO $3.5M (WHAM)

The Morgan-Manning House in Brockport is moving forward on a restoration track after fire damage. 13WHAM reports the fire was caused by a control-valve malfunction, and the organization has already spent about $1.3M, with total costs estimated up to $3.5M.

WHEC coverage also notes fundraising/ongoing work and frames it as a community-backed restoration effort.

Why it matters in a neighborhood value sense:
Historic assets aren’t just nostalgia - they’re identity infrastructure. When a community saves one, it usually increases pride, visitation, and long-term stewardship behavior nearby.

THIS WEEK’S WRAP-UP

Homeowners:
Rochester’s #1 first-time buyer ranking reinforces that affordability is still a competitive advantage. But keep an eye on job-sector volatility (Constellation signals pressure) because it can reshape demand by price band.

Home buyers:
The market message is simple: Rochester is “affordable on paper,” which draws competition. If rates soften at all in 2026, entry-level buyers could surge fast. Watch Irondequoit and the inner-ring suburbs where new projects are landing.

Investors:
Development is moving again (Colgate campus, St. Thomas), and infrastructure dollars are reinforcing industrial reliability (rail bridges). That’s a strong setup - just underwrite conservatively around construction timelines and consumer-facing weakness.

Bottom line:
Rochester’s 2026 story is shaping up as housing demand supported by national affordability credibility, with selective economic headwinds and a real redevelopment/infrastructure pipeline that can improve quality-of-life and supply - if execution holds.

If you want, I can also turn this exact issue into a clean email version (subject line + preview text + tighter sections) so you can paste it into your newsletter platform.

[Schedule a call]

See you next week,

Khem