ROCHESTER HOUSING OUTLOOK: NAR NAMES ROCHESTER #1 FOR FIRST-TIME BUYERS AS TWO BIG REUSE PROJECTS CLEAR HURDLES WHILE CONSTELLATION REPORTS 10% SALES DROP AND LOCAL HEADCOUNT DECLINES

January 8, 2026

Hey, it's Khem, yep, still the only Khem Kadariya in the world.

and here is the new video just got published this week. Rochester NY: Pros & Cons | What You NEED To Know About Living In Rochester

BTW - the Rochester market is entering a new phase: affordability is getting national attention again, and the next move is whether we can add supply fast enough without weakening the job backdrop.

This week’s data and headlines show Rochester’s housing story being pulled in two directions: entry-level affordability stays strong, while workforce and consumer softness show up in corporate earnings and local headcount. 

In today's newsletter:

• Housing Market Momentum: NAR highlights Rochester as #1 among realtor.com®’s best markets for first-time buyers in 2026, citing $139,900 median listing price, $48,617 median income for ages 25-34, and an estimated 19.1% share of income spent on mortgage payment (under their affordability model). (NAR)

• Urban Infill Supply Move: Angelo Ingrassia revives the Colgate Rochester Divinity campus plan: $46.28M phased redevelopment, 136 residential units, requesting $9.1M in incentives including a 16-year PILOT (~$7.3M) and keeping 27 units at ≤60% AMI with proposed rents from $1,170 to $2,700. (RBJ)

• Employer Headwind Signal: Constellation Brands reports 10% YoY Q3 sales decline ($2.22B vs $2.46B) and RBJ notes Rochester workforce down 55 employees (613 → 558, -9%), tied to restructuring/cost reduction.(RBJ)

• Irondequoit Redevelopment Unblocked: Former St. Thomas School project clears a key legal hurdle: variance upheld and affirmed on appeal; plans target 16-18 market-rate apartments, about $8M investment, and developers cite a waitlist of ~100 with a goal to welcome tenants within two years.(wdkx)

ROCHESTER RANKED #1 FOR FIRST-TIME BUYERS AS AFFORDABILITY MODEL PUTS HOUSING COSTS AT 19.1% OF INCOME FOR 25-34s

NAR’s REALTOR® Magazine (summarizing realtor.com® analysis) puts Rochester at the top of its 2026 first-time buyer market list, using a framework where “affordable” markets are those with housing costs under 30% of monthly income, factoring median list prices and median earnings for ages 25-34.

Affordability Inputs (Rochester):

• Median listing price: $139,900

• 25–34 median income: $48,617

• Share of income spent on mortgage payment: 19.1%

What Makes It Transformational:
This kind of national “first-time buyer” ranking isn’t just PR - it reinforces the entry-level demand floor. When a market repeatedly screens as “attainable,” it tends to keep pulling in renters, relocators, and first-time buyers even when rates are uncomfortable. The pressure point becomes inventory quality and supply, not demand.

$46.3M COLGATE DIVINITY CAMPUS PLAN TARGETS 136 UNITS WITH 27 INCOME-RESTRICTED HOMES AS COMIDA REVIEWS $9.1M INCENTIVE REQUEST

Ingrassia’s revived plan proposes converting four existing buildings (including 40 units) and adding two new 48-unit buildings to reach 136 total units, with COMIDA reviewing a $9.1M incentive request intended (per the filing) to keep rents “affordable.”

Deal Structure & Timeline Markers:

• Project size: $46.28M, phased

• Incentives requested: $9.1M (incl. 16-year PILOT ~$7.30M, sales tax exemption, mortgage recording tax exemption)

• Public hearing: Jan. 15 (City Place)

• COMIDA board: Jan. 20

Rent & Affordability Mix:

• Proposed rents: $1,170 (1BR) to $2,700 (2BR)

• 27 units reserved for ≤60% AMI tenants

What Makes It Strategic:
This is the blueprint Rochester needs more of: adaptive reuse + targeted infill near the city core. It doesn’t instantly fix inventory, but it adds durable unit count without relying on far-out sprawl - and it introduces income-restricted units inside a broader market-rate community, which can stabilize the renter pipeline and reduce pressure in neighboring submarkets.

CONSTELLATION SALES DOWN 10% AS ROCHESTER HEADCOUNT FALLS 9%: A REAL (BUT NOT CITYWIDE) CONFIDENCE CHECK

RBJ reports Constellation’s Q3 sales fell 10% YoY to $2.22B, alongside continued restructuring and a Rochester workforce decline (613 → 558, down 55, or 9%) over the past year.

Key Operating Notes (from RBJ):

• Beer sales about $2.01B (down 1% YoY)

• Wine & spirits sales $213M (down 7% YoY)

• Updated fiscal 2026 EPS outlook: $9.72-$10.02 (lowered)

What Makes It Critical:
This isn’t a “Rochester is falling apart” headline - but it matters because large employer sentiment affects everything downstream: move-up timing, renovation spending, and buyer confidence. If this stays isolated, housing impact is minimal. If it spreads across major employers, the first signs typically show up as longer decision cycles, more concessions, and slower absorption in higher price points.

IRONDEQUOIT’S ST. THOMAS SCHOOL REDEVELOPMENT CLEARS LEGAL BARRIER WITH 16-18 UNITS TARGETED AND A 100-PERSON WAITLIST

The former St. Thomas School redevelopment cleared a major legal hurdle after a use variance was upheld and affirmed on appeal, reopening the path for conversion into 16-18 market-rate apartments with an estimated $8M investment and historic preservation elements.

Momentum Signals:

• Developer cites ~100 interested tenants already

• Target: final plans by March, occupancy within two years

What Makes It Transformational:
Small-to-mid adaptive reuse projects like this are “quiet supply.” They won’t change countywide inventory overnight, but they reduce pressure at the margin, diversify housing options, and signal that entitlement barriers are breaking - which encourages other stalled projects to re-enter the pipeline.

THIS WEEK'S WRAP-UP

Homeowners: Rochester getting named #1 for first-time buyers strengthens the “demand floor” for well-presented starter and first move-up homes - but watch employer headlines closely, because confidence shifts show up quickly in showing activity and offer aggressiveness.

Home Buyers: The national affordability spotlight doesn’t mean homes get easier to win - it often brings more attention. The edge in 2026 is preparation: clean financing, realistic location targets, and a strategy for condition/inspection decisions.

Investors: The pipeline story is improving: 136-unit infill + targeted affordability and smaller adaptive reuse projects point to sustained rental demand - but underwrite with job sensitivity in mind, especially if corporate restructuring expands beyond one headline.

Bottom Line: Rochester’s affordability narrative is strong enough to attract first-time buyers nationally - now the real question is whether local supply additions keep pace while the job backdrop holds steady.

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See you next week,

Khem